Month: January 2009

NZDUSD Trendline Break to Mesa on Daily

Mike

NZDUSD Mesa short daily 19JAN09 (click to see chart) – Possible small trendline break trade down to former low, also a Mesa break short as well.  This is potentially a double confirming trade on the daily.  After being burned so badly last week on this pair and the AUDNZD,  I will not take until it breaks and closes below the TL on the 1 hour.  I plan to scale in incase of a quick retracement.  This is the same theme as all other trades today, dollar strength which I suspect is partly due to the MLK bank holiday and the U.S. Innauguration tomorrow.

 This trade did work out and hit my targets but I missed the entry and did not take it. 

GBPUSD – Short off Pivot and 62 on 1HR

Mike

GBPUSD 1HR 21JAN09  short off a close bounce off the 62 and hitting the daily pivot on the 1 hr.  I like this type of trade, although with higher volatility lately they can be a bit risky as you can get whipped out before it goes your way.  I am short for a very small lot (1/4 of what I normally trade) to see if I can catch this.  My stop is just above the 62 on the 1 hour.  This trade has been in a 20 pip range all Asian session today.  I am only targetting the S1 level but that is 500 pips!  I am willing to take a few tries on this pair due to fundamentals, also looking for an entry on either the GBPCHF or GBPJPY, but only one of the risk pairs.

AUDUSD GAP Trendline trade – 2nd try???

Mike

AUDUSD Daily GAP-2 trendy13JAN09  Pair has broken a medium term trendline and may be setting up for a good short trade.  Stop would be above recent high.  Since the pair is divergent on the 60M, I prefer waiting to see if this happens, possibly taking the divergent trade, and then taking the short trade if it sets up with a better risk/reward (smaller stop loss).  Goal is lower trend line.  (see AUDUSD divergent trade post for 1HR chart setup).

 Wednesday 21JAN09

I am back in this trade.  Updated chart is below.  I was up 90 + pips and it retraced during the mid Asian session leading up to 21:00 est, but now is retracing again.  If this does not break the congestion tonight I will not keep chasing this trade.  It was a good run either way.

Updated AUDUSD Gap trade as of 21JAN09 20:45:

AUDUSD 60M Gap 21JAN09

Tuesday 20JAN09 – The pair did break the near term mid-resistance line I drew yesterday, but it did not cross the recent low which was significant resistance on the other move down to this level.  I took a small testing possition and was stopped out on a bounce off the mesa line.  I will wait to see if it can close below this area on the 1 hour with a convicted candle before retrying this trade. 

Monday 19JAN2009 – midway through the Asian session, it looks like we are setting up for possibly another shot at this trade.  The first time it reached 1/2 of the way and retraced to the 200 on the 60M.  Will we break through and get to the green lower support TL? 

I think if we can ride the Obama mania train for the European session we have a great shot.  We’ll see.  All the USD related trades today setting or triggering are in my mind the same trade – short term USD strenghthening due to election relief and the current global love affair with our soon to be new President.  I expect this will be a very short trading window and if it holds through the European session, all bets are off after tomorrow.  I am hoping for some good trending once the market decides it’s short term take on the new pres.

Here is the updated chart: 

  AUDUSD Gap 2nd try 19JAN09

EURUSD Short to Daily Trendline – HIT THE TARGET!

Mike

EURUSD Short to daily TL 19JAN09  (click to see chart)-  After the EURUSD bounced off the 200 SMA on the 1 hour it has been on a tear downward.  Where will it stop?  I think it if makes it beyond the S1 pivot at 1.2950 area it will try to go for the long term trendline that is crossing around 1.2800 area.  There is the risk of a reversal to the 62, but innaugauration mania may give us a push down.  What is interesting is that the TL is now between S2 and S3 so it is well with statistical probabilities to hit this area in the European session if current sentiment holds. This pair does not usually go down to S3 or below. 

Take a look at the 60M chart here:

EURUSD 60M trendline view 19JAN09

UPDATE as of Wednesday 21JAN09 – the pair hit the long term base trend line dead on and then retraced.  I did not take all of this as I was afraid of a reversal  but did collect a nice amount of pips on the bottom part of this trade.  I still think we may go lower on fundamentals but this pair has been tough for me to trade as its volatility range has increased significantly from what I am used to.  I am watching, but just taking a few short range trades in the direction of the current trend.  If it breaks the long term base line I would consider a testing possition, I would also be willing to go long if it broke strongly above the 62 on the 1 hour.

Chart as of Wednesday 21JAN09 20:00

EURUSD Daily 21JAN09

EURCAD Surprise Squeeze – Still watching after false starts

Mike

EURCAD Surprise Squeeze 19JAN09  – close to breaking short on 60M and also Squeeze box set up on 4 hour.  Also note the gap S/R levels and possible danger of consolidation at the lower trendline in green. 

21JAN09 – 22:08 I tried a few stabs – got stopped out twice.  I am still watching this one but would not be surprised to see it retrace.  I am not as sure about the direction now vs. Monday.

20JAN09 – I took a small stab at this Tuesday evening around 18:30 est when it closed below the 144 on the 60M.  It almost stopped me out but then reversed nicely down to the bottom of the surprise box at 1.6321.  Placed a SL to protect 25 pips.  Stop was hit as it touched the 144.  I am happy with that result due to expected market swings due to innauguration tomorrow.  If it closes below the box and I catch it, I’ll take another shot with a small lot. 

EURUSD – consolidation break watch

Mike

EURUSD Surprise Box 12JAN09 – the pair has consolidated on multiple timeframes (1HR, 4HR and 5 min.).  It is also slightly divergent on the 4HR.  I am watching for a break of the 1 hour box, with a target to the top of the 4HR box and a possible continuation to the 800, or a break down with a target to the lower trendline on the 4HR.  Also FIBS would be a good target.  Biased towards the downside.