I have been watching and profiting from the EURUSD slide the past few weeks but think we may be ready for a retracement. FIB retracements from recent lows back to mid January highs line up well with past s/r levels and are good targets for me. I have a trade I put on this morning going long to the .618 less a bit of padding. Initial profit target = 1.3947. If we break convincingly above the 62 on the 4 hour I’ll move up my stop and target profits.
On the other hand, if the pair goes the other way (Greece news bias to the upside but you never know), my stop is just below the recent lows at 1.3570. This would just mean time to wait for another chance at a retracement for me. I attached a big pic view using the 4 hour charts. I used the 1 hour for timing of the trade.
eurusd-to-s2-fib-24feb09.gif – This started as a quick trade for 30 pips pre opening down to the 800 on the 5 or 15 minute areas. As I was looking at the longer tern Fibs on the 1 hour I saw that the 1.382 extension on the fib of the last move is a confluence area with the daily S2 pivot.
My initial trade targets are being hit as I post this. I am playing conservative today due to alot of talking heads going before the US Congress. I am going to trail down my stops and see where this may go. I am NOT willing to risk much though as I expect some whippy action once the testimonies get underway, still, this is an interesting setup with a nice profit target if it breaks in that direction.
GBPUSD_Daily_11FEB09 – This is more of a trade watch idea as there are good arguements for a bounce off the current level, but I am biased to the short side. That being said, I would be willing to go long for a retracement until the pair consolidates.
The Daily chart shows price is sitting on a fibonacci confluence zone as well as bouncing on the top of the recently broken channel. I believe fundamentally that the GBP is still set up to fall further. The wildcard here is the actions of our happy congress and what ultimately gets passed, and how the market reacts to the massive debt load we will be incurring which has the very real possibility of leading to inflation, increased money supply and a falling dollar. To confuse the long term outlook, the USD is being used as a flight to safety vehicle which has propped it up over the past few days. Again, arguements can be made either way.
My plan is if the pair closes below the red confluence zone and channel, I will short it down to the .382 as an initial profit that is draw between the two confluence zones. I will be looking for opportunities to stack and move my stops down. I have taken some nice pips the past 2 days on the current shorts and am now in with a very small lot to try to build another possition if it breaks. If we get taken out I’ll wait for a consolidation or break below.
NZDUSD Daily Fib update 9feb09 – See how strong candle hit Fib level and bounced.
NZDUSD 60M fib 9feb09 – This is a small reversal to the short term trendline on the 60M that I have entered, but relatively small stop. Risk is the pair will want to rise to the 800 before the 800 falls to price. I may have to retry if I get stopped out. What I find so interesting is a reconfirmation of the Fibonacci levels in real world trading. Although the real methodology is a trade off of what I think is an overdone rally with a modest 100 pip initial target the Fibonacci overlay is spot on with the price movement. Even the projections below 1.0 are right on the previous low. It is also interesting that the .380 fib level is right on the cross of the TL as the trade opened.
On Fib’s, they are not trade ideas all by themselves, but they are becoming useful in my trading as confirmation of where price should/could go and where it should not go in a certain timeframe. These levels also highly correlate to the work I did on the Daily Fib’s last week on this pair in a previous post.
GBPUSD 1HR 21JAN09 short off a close bounce off the 62 and hitting the daily pivot on the 1 hr. I like this type of trade, although with higher volatility lately they can be a bit risky as you can get whipped out before it goes your way. I am short for a very small lot (1/4 of what I normally trade) to see if I can catch this. My stop is just above the 62 on the 1 hour. This trade has been in a 20 pip range all Asian session today. I am only targetting the S1 level but that is 500 pips! I am willing to take a few tries on this pair due to fundamentals, also looking for an entry on either the GBPCHF or GBPJPY, but only one of the risk pairs.
AUDUSD Daily GAP-2 trendy13JAN09 Pair has broken a medium term trendline and may be setting up for a good short trade. Stop would be above recent high. Since the pair is divergent on the 60M, I prefer waiting to see if this happens, possibly taking the divergent trade, and then taking the short trade if it sets up with a better risk/reward (smaller stop loss). Goal is lower trend line. (see AUDUSD divergent trade post for 1HR chart setup).
I am back in this trade. Updated chart is below. I was up 90 + pips and it retraced during the mid Asian session leading up to 21:00 est, but now is retracing again. If this does not break the congestion tonight I will not keep chasing this trade. It was a good run either way.
Updated AUDUSD Gap trade as of 21JAN09 20:45:
Tuesday 20JAN09 – The pair did break the near term mid-resistance line I drew yesterday, but it did not cross the recent low which was significant resistance on the other move down to this level. I took a small testing possition and was stopped out on a bounce off the mesa line. I will wait to see if it can close below this area on the 1 hour with a convicted candle before retrying this trade.
Monday 19JAN2009 – midway through the Asian session, it looks like we are setting up for possibly another shot at this trade. The first time it reached 1/2 of the way and retraced to the 200 on the 60M. Will we break through and get to the green lower support TL?
I think if we can ride the Obama mania train for the European session we have a great shot. We’ll see. All the USD related trades today setting or triggering are in my mind the same trade – short term USD strenghthening due to election relief and the current global love affair with our soon to be new President. I expect this will be a very short trading window and if it holds through the European session, all bets are off after tomorrow. I am hoping for some good trending once the market decides it’s short term take on the new pres.
Here is the updated chart: