AUDUSD GAP Trendline trade – 2nd try???

AUDUSD Daily GAP-2 trendy13JAN09  Pair has broken a medium term trendline and may be setting up for a good short trade.  Stop would be above recent high.  Since the pair is divergent on the 60M, I prefer waiting to see if this happens, possibly taking the divergent trade, and then taking the short trade if it sets up with a better risk/reward (smaller stop loss).  Goal is lower trend line.  (see AUDUSD divergent trade post for 1HR chart setup).

 Wednesday 21JAN09

I am back in this trade.  Updated chart is below.  I was up 90 + pips and it retraced during the mid Asian session leading up to 21:00 est, but now is retracing again.  If this does not break the congestion tonight I will not keep chasing this trade.  It was a good run either way.

Updated AUDUSD Gap trade as of 21JAN09 20:45:

AUDUSD 60M Gap 21JAN09

Tuesday 20JAN09 – The pair did break the near term mid-resistance line I drew yesterday, but it did not cross the recent low which was significant resistance on the other move down to this level.  I took a small testing possition and was stopped out on a bounce off the mesa line.  I will wait to see if it can close below this area on the 1 hour with a convicted candle before retrying this trade. 

Monday 19JAN2009 – midway through the Asian session, it looks like we are setting up for possibly another shot at this trade.  The first time it reached 1/2 of the way and retraced to the 200 on the 60M.  Will we break through and get to the green lower support TL? 

I think if we can ride the Obama mania train for the European session we have a great shot.  We’ll see.  All the USD related trades today setting or triggering are in my mind the same trade – short term USD strenghthening due to election relief and the current global love affair with our soon to be new President.  I expect this will be a very short trading window and if it holds through the European session, all bets are off after tomorrow.  I am hoping for some good trending once the market decides it’s short term take on the new pres.

Here is the updated chart: 

  AUDUSD Gap 2nd try 19JAN09

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