Month: February 2009

EURUSD Short S2 + Fib Extension 1HR

Mike

eurusd-to-s2-fib-24feb09.gif – This started as a quick trade for 30 pips pre opening down to the 800 on the 5 or 15 minute areas.  As I was looking at the longer tern Fibs on the 1 hour I saw that the 1.382 extension on the fib of the last move is a confluence area with the daily S2 pivot.

 My initial trade targets are being hit as I post this.  I am playing conservative today due to alot of talking heads going before the US Congress.  I am going to trail down my stops and see where this may go.  I am NOT willing to risk much though as I expect some whippy action once the testimonies get underway, still, this is an interesting setup with a nice profit target if it breaks in that direction.

NZDUSD Box 60M+5M 11Feb09

Mike

nzdusd 60Min box 11febo9  –  nzdusd 5min 11febo9  

 Simple support and resistance trade here.  No firm idea on direction, although I am USD long fundamentally for the medium term.  On the 60M a s/r box has formed around the 144 and 62 with the 200 moving up to meet it.  On the 5 minute, the 800 sma is about 30 pips above the box as I write this.  The MACD 60M indicates downward momentum is waning and the Stochastic shows a cross a few candles ago and the pair did go long on that bar.  Taking nearterm trendlines into account, there are some clear indicators as to when to get in depending on what price does.  My goal for this pair would be to catch the break and ride it for 30 to 50 pips.  I am not willing to enter this trade unless I am actually watching it happen.  This is a short term trade idea for me at this time as the pair has been unpredicable lately.  I caugt 30 pips yesterday at the end of the NY session and closed it just before it took off in my original direction,  AAAAAAHHHHHH!  🙂

GBPUSD Daily Short setup

Mike

GBPUSD_Daily_11FEB09 – This is more of a trade watch idea as there are good arguements for a bounce off the current level, but I am biased to the short side.  That being said, I would be willing to go long for a retracement until the pair consolidates.

 The Daily chart shows price is sitting on a fibonacci confluence zone as well as bouncing on the top of the recently broken channel.  I believe fundamentally that the GBP is still set up to fall further.  The wildcard here is the actions of our happy congress and what ultimately gets passed, and how the market reacts to the massive debt load we will be incurring which has the very real possibility of leading to inflation, increased money supply and a falling dollar.  To confuse the long term outlook, the USD is being used as a flight to safety vehicle which has propped it up over the past few days.  Again, arguements can be made either way. 

 My plan is if the pair closes below the red confluence zone and channel, I will short it down to the .382 as an initial profit that is draw between the two confluence zones.  I will be looking for opportunities to stack and move my stops down.  I have taken some nice pips the past 2 days on the current shorts and am now in with a very small lot to try to build another possition if it breaks.  If we get taken out I’ll wait for a consolidation or break below. 

NZDUSD 60 min reversal to trendline

Mike

NZDUSD Daily Fib update 9feb09  –  See how strong candle hit Fib level and bounced.

NZDUSD 60M fib 9feb09  –  This is a small reversal to the short term trendline on the 60M that I have entered, but relatively small stop.  Risk is the pair will want to rise to the 800 before the 800 falls to price.  I may have to retry if I get stopped out.  What I find so interesting is a reconfirmation of the Fibonacci levels in real world trading.  Although the real methodology is a trade off of what I think is an overdone rally with a modest 100 pip initial target the Fibonacci overlay is spot on with the price movement.  Even the  projections below 1.0 are right on the previous low.  It is also interesting that the .380 fib level is right on the cross of the TL as the trade opened.

 On Fib’s, they are not trade ideas all by themselves, but they are becoming useful in my trading as confirmation of where price should/could go and where it should not go in a certain timeframe.  These levels also highly correlate to the work I did on the Daily Fib’s last week on this pair in a previous post.