Month: August 2008

GBPJPY – Friday 1AUG08:- my last trade on this pair closed out Friday morning when it hit the 800 SMA on the 1 hour.  This pair has bounced off the 800 twice recently.  This is a heads up to start looking for Divergent trade setups.  Nothing currently, but watch the pair as the week opens to see if we get any good setups.

UPDATE Tuesday 5AUG08:  I took two trades off this setup. The first was a quick SR trade Sunday night.  Pair was in a range between the 800 and about 30 PIPS below.  I took a quick trade on a downward movement that closed overnight for a gain of about 30 PIPS.  Monday night, the pair broke the long term SR level and the 800.  Entered on a bearish candle that closed below the 800.   I had 2 short positions on that were not doing much before the 12:00 a.m. rollover.  I felt strong about the overall trade, but due to the FED data coming out Tuesday I did not want to risk a fast spike up/down in anticipation so I took off one position.  I ended up +98 PIPS in the a.m. when I woke up.  Dissapointed I lightened the position, but I slept much better.  I have learned the hard way it is more important to give up some potential PIPS to protect your account balance.

 Friday 1 AUG close                                Tuesday 5AUG08 – completed trade movement

                                 

USDJPY Friday 1AUG08: The pair had a Stochastic cross on the 1 hour but it was oversold and the candles did not cross the 200 yet. I am watching to see if the pair can cross the 200 SMA for a possible trend resumption and confirm by closing above the 62 EMA. This would be a good probe for a probing trade with the still in place upward trend. Goal 50 to 100 pips. This is a watch an wait setup for next week.

UPDATE Monday 2AUG08:  I took a probing trade on a Stochastic cross and oversold candles but closed it when I saw strong upward movement for a small loss.  Good call as the pair continued upward for many candles. 

GBPJPY Support/Resistance trade – This is really a continuation of a trade setup from last week that closed out.  We had a Channel breakout to the downside last week and traded it down to the 800 SMA on the 1 hour chart.  I then took a few probing short trades that stopped out, only to realize price was heading up to the bottom the old Channel, which is exactly where it stopped.  Now, we have some clear SR trendlines in place.  I think there is more of a chance of it breaking to the downside based on trendlines and oversold indicators.  I built a small possition overnight (was stopped out first but eventually found the correct levels) and woke up to 70+ PIPS on a small position.  I then doubled up (still below my normal trade size), and moved my SL down to 25 PIPS above the most recent SR line.  I was taken out at a 4 PIP profit – B/E.  If you look at my last GBPJPY trade idea you can see a good view of the previous Channel and subsequent break out downwards.

 After drawing the new downward TL that is now in place, I think I found the TL that price is following. I again have a small exploratory trade on that is in a tight 25 PIP range for most of the day.  If price breaks the TL and eventually the old Channel, I may consider a trade up to the old most recent high.  The current trade is short back down to the lowest most recent SR level as Target 1, and Target 2 is just above the 800 SMA on the 1 Hour.

UPDATE 29JULY08 – This trade significantly broke the channel on the upward side overnight and stopped out.  I decided to take another short probing entry this morning, all in all I have broke even less a few pips after I closed that possition once it touched the 200 and started to retrace.  I am now flat in this pair and am watching to see if the pair can close below the 200 on the 1 Hour.  If the risk reward ratio still looks good I may consider another small possition trying to get to the 800.  Otherwise this trade idea is over. 

UPATE 30July08 – This trade is closed for now.  The pair spiked up overnight and hit my stops.  I still think it is biased to the downside but unless it breaks the long term SL line on the daily, I am not going to re-enter for the time being.

 UPDATE 31July08 – Trade setup started trending down, re-opened.  Trade is hitting long term trendline.  If breaks, I believe this one will run far.  I have a small probing trade on now as the Asian session is winding down.

UPATE 1AUG08 – Pair broke through the bottom of the box and shot down to the 800 overnight.  My targets were hit and this trade is now closed.    100 PIPS while I was sleeping – nice!

Here is what the Trade setup looked like as of 1800 Monday 28Jul08:

 

Updated view – showing channel break – 1800 19Jul08  

 

31July08 1 hour and 5 minute chart update