NZDJPY STOCH Cross and 62 EMA cross – This is a quick little trade that I saw. Two of my favorite setups, one is a Stochastic crossover indicating the pair is going to fall, and a cross back down through the 62 EMA which resumes a previous downward trend. I am so hyperfocused on the GBPJPY and EURUSD for the past few days, I am glad to find this little trade. Only going for about 35 PIPS as this is normally a slower moving pair. Risk is very low even if the trade does not work out.
Update – this trade worked out textbook. I closed it at the previous low on the oversold bar below. I scaled in two possitions as this was a nice slow moving trade. I got the bonus of the trade closing during rollover at 12:00 a.m. and a fast oversold spike. I had a stop market on and picked up an additional 18 pips!
Here is the trade opening:
Here is the close – I got out at the large overbought just before breaking the Mesa line
GBPJPY pre-us open – taking a small stab at a mesa trade down to 212.76, trade just opened. SL is at 214.50 and entry is at 213.95. Most likely this is the last trade for the week. This is a quick trade, no analysis, just a reaction to what I am seeing the market do and based on existing trade setups I like.
UPDATE – Trade closed and hit my stop loss almost a quick as I put it on. This pair amazes me at its powerful surges. It is reaching as I type for the bottom on the former Channel Trendline. I jumped into this and should have waited for the candle to close.
Here is the trade setup:
GBPJPY trade that closed earlier has a possible continuation / re-entry if it breaks the old Mesa line at 212.76 that it has been obeying. If it breaks and profit targets are still in line I’ll take a small possition. Possible additional possition could be placed if it solidly breaks the 200 with a final target at the 800 SMA on the 60M
25July08 This Trade is now closed. It hit my profit target pre-European open and promply reversed which is why I was only trading 1/2 my normal size. I am happy this trade closed profitably and did not reverse before my Take Profit target overnight as has so often happened with this pair. It did reverse hard as it is known to do.
Here is the trade setup:
Here is the final chart – 800 hit and then reversal:
EURUSD Counter Trend Reversal:
This is a better planned redemption trade second entry to the EURUSD short trade yesterday that closed out after hitting my SL and promptly reversing and record speed. I have a unique talent for placing my stops right at the reversal points – if only it were a talent I could get paid for! After getting taken out on the original entry and waking up nauseous after seeing the takeout happened 1 bar before the break and broke hard.
After I recovered, had some nice expresso and decided to go on with trading in spite of this setback, I waited to see if the pair would break the short term TL on the 60M. I entered after the break and over 2 days followed the pair, leveraging new positions once profitable. Took some off at key danger points, and reentered the trade after confirmation after the momentum continued. This was my best trade both in PIPS and profitability in several months. Well over 125 pips in range. I am still in this trade with one final position to see if we get a continuation break down from the 60M 800. As I write this, the Asian session is just ranging tightly. I expect the Eurpean session will break hard in reaction to the 2 day downward trend but being a mere mortal can not predict the direction. There is fundamental data that also weighed in on my thoughts of this trade. On a purely technical basis, I would normally have closed this final position and waited for a new confirming break.
UPDATE 24July08 – The initial trade setup is now profitably closed. I am watching to see if a continuation trade setup will occur and will take a better look at the overall longer term trends.
See the trade setup below – now ranging oversold around the 800 on the 60M
GBPJPY –> Pair is divergent and overbought. Pair at top of 3 day channel and hitting old SR Mesa line. Waiting for a clear break downward. Would be very hesitant to take a long position due to extreme overbought signals pair is showing.
I am considering taking a small probing position during the late Asian session 1:00 a.m. edt.
UPDATE 23July08 PM – probing position put on early pre Europe closed and pair climbed stongly. Pair is still overbought and very divergent on the MACD. Redrew Channel with higher high and channel TL’s are being obeyed as of now. I still am looking for a short entry on this pair but will enter small probing positions due to the very high volatility this pair is known for. High stops need to be placed to have a chance to catch the eventual movement. Profit Target 1: 62 EMA . which is also now at the lower TL of the channel. Target profit 2: old SR line at 213.66
Second Probing Trade opened: 20:15 EDT. Still overbought, starting to fall. Placed SL above recent highest high. If Successful and break follows through, additional possitions will be added while keeping in mind conservative money management on this pair.
UPDATE 24July08 – This was a great trade overnight. Woke up to my initial profit target being hit at the 62 and 1/2 my positions already in the bank. I added another position once confirmation of breaking an existing SR line occurred. I closed the trade once it started to look like it was going to reverse. Conservatively played due to the high volatility of this pair.
Initial Trade Setup Entry:
Updated Trade Entry and Second probing entry:
Updated Trade Close – PIPS Collected!
I saw some downward movement near the Asian open and thought I’d get a quick 15 to 20 pips. I entered a short trade on the EURUSD with a 20 PIP target and 10 PIP SL. The trade setup worked, however, I was leaving so increased my target and the original target was hit, but then the pair reversed. I was near the session high and bought in again with a 7 PIP additional risk. Trade is still open as of 12:15 a.m. but slowly creeping up. In retrospect, too slow of a market to enter this type of a trade. Results to follow. Aggressive target is now just above the 5 min. 800 which would give about 40 PIPS.
Update morning of 22 July 2008
This trade closed out once last night on a move just above my SL. Just before I went to bed, it started going back in my direction and I re-entered with a higher SL, and changed the goals to just above the 800 on the 5 min. which was also about the 62 on the 1 hour. I like both of these types of setups and this was a 2fer.
I am a bit bummed this morning (I’ll get over it). The trade worked out exactly as I had hoped. So was I wrong about the trade? Nope, just poor execution and that nasty need to sleep affected the outcome. Actually it even ran past the 62 and 800 (5min) at about 7:00 this a.m. The only problem is somewhere around the 5:30 to 6:00 hour my SL was touched and the trade immediately reversed.
So – what have I learned? Sometimes stops happen. I was overleveraged a bit so although my SL was above the trendline on the 60M, it was a bit tighter than maybe it should have been. I should have had a higher SL using the 60 minute frame and given myself more room to ride this one out. It was not a bad decision to limit losses, it justis frustrating when you are so close and your SL is just a fw pips too close to the reversal point. Next time maybe I’ll use less leverage…
Here are the final charts on the now closed trade: