EURUSD S/R and Overbougt Divergent

EURUSD Overbt_DIV 15DEC08  (click to see chart) The EURUSD retracement is strongly overbought but the move may not be quite done.  As I write this, I am watching for a break above 1.3723 in which case I will go long with an initial target of either 1.3796 or 1.3881 depending on where the breakout candle closes.  During active sessions I will take a break on the 15 min but in slower sessions I prefer using the 1 hour timeframe.  Also I am watching for a retracement back to the 62 currently at 1.3455 or further if we come out of overbought.  There is a clear divergent setup on the MACD and the Stochastic is in overbought territory.  This has been a clear breakout in hindsite but was a bit tricky as I was watching for a pullback too early around the 1.3256 area.

NZDJPY S/R Box breakout 1HR

NZDJPY surprise 15DEC08  (click to see chart) On the NZDJPY a colsolidation box has formed around the MA’s.  They are all in a range between 49.90 and 50.22.  Watch for a breakout and on a convicted candle take the trade in the breakout direction.  Initial targets = 51.15 or 48.50.  Upside secondary target = 800 MA.  We are near multiyear lows at 48.13 so be careful.  Also we are in a strong downward trending phase on the 240 and daily even though we are consolidating MA’s on the 1HR, again, caution and low risk warranted.  Scale in/out.  A bigger box would be 51.19 and 48.13

USDCHF Trade Idea Oversold 60M

USDCHF reversal watch 15DEC08  (click to view graph) USDCHF has been falling on recent dollar weakness and has been oversold for a while.  We are far away from the 62.  Watch for colsolidation and break back towards the 62 and 800 MA’s on the 1HR.  This is really just a watch and wait right now.  No signals are being given, it just feels like it’s been trending down too fast and ready for a pullback.  Notice the consolidation area at 1.1557.  I would consider shorting if it broke convincingly below this point for a 50 to 100 pip trade target but low leverage and scaling in/out would be how I would play this one.